‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are turning to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being prioritised for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.